Projections Suggest Trudeau Win, Odds Of Harper Winning Again Falling Fast.

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With one week left before Election Day, the last stage of a gruelling campaign for political power in Canada has come down to this: trying to catch Justin Trudeau.

The Liberals are holding on to first place in the latest Nanos tracking poll, taking a steady lead over the Conservatives with eight days to go in the election.

A three-day rolling poll of 1,200 randomly selected Canadians conducted by Nanos Research for The Globe and Mail and CTV between Oct. 8 and 10 suggests the Liberals have 35.1 per cent support nationally, followed by the Conservatives at 29 per cent and the NDP at 25 per cent.

The six-point lead marks the 10th straight day the Liberals have polled ahead of the Conservatives, who are now below the 30-per cent mark for the second straight day.

The Liberals are heading into Thanksgiving as the front-runners, making for interesting political conversations at dinner tables as family members and friends start to make decisions on the ballot they will cast in advance voting or on Oct. 19.

In an interview, pollster Nik Nanos said the results mean Canadians will be conducting their “due dilligence” on the Liberals this week.

“It will be interesting to see how Justin Trudeau makes out in the last week of the campaign when Canadians will look at him differently than they have been for the first 60 days,” he said.

He cautioned that the Liberals are still in minority territory with these numbers, and that there remains much volatility in the support for the Liberal Party and the NDP.
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Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is taking a break from his national tour on Sunday, but issued an open-letter making his case for forming government.

“Across this country, I’ve heard so many stories of people desperate for real change. In all of our conversations, one thing has become very clear: we can’t afford another ten years like the last ten years,” Mr. Trudeau said. “I’ve seen you come together to reject the politics of fear and the promoters of hate. You know that has no place here.”

The Nanos tracking poll showed a three-way race until the last week of September, when the NDP started to lose support in Quebec, affecting its national numbers.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, left, and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper trade words during the Munk Debate on foreign affairs, in Toronto, on Monday, Sept. 28, 2015. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, left, and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper trade words during the Munk Debate on foreign affairs, in Toronto, on Monday, Sept. 28, 2015. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan


The Liberals are currently strong in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, while the Conservatives are holding strong in the Prairies, according to the Nanos poll. British Columbia remains the scene of a three-way race, while Quebec features a battle between the NDP and the Liberal Party.

The Nanos nightly tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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